Madison Reporter

A new study published in Scientific Reports examines how building electrification affects the cost burden for customers who remain on natural gas utilities. The research, conducted by Ann F. Fink and colleagues at the University of Wisconsin and a thermal energy innovation institute, introduces a framework to assess affordability risks as more buildings switch from gas to electric systems.

The study explores different scenarios for electrification: when wealthier households electrify first, when lower-income households do so, or when adoption is random. It finds that the sequence of electrification can significantly impact the bills of those still using gas. Ongoing investments in aging natural gas infrastructure, such as pipeline replacements, may increase costs for remaining customers if not managed carefully.

“Our findings highlight the importance of coordinating the transition to building electrification, particularly during the period when existing energy systems, such as natural gas, will continue to operate alongside new electric systems like heat pumps,” said Garibay-Rodriguez, lead study author and postdoctoral researcher at the University of Wisconsin’s . “Policymakers face a difficult challenge because much of the aging and failing infrastructure, such as gas distribution pipelines, has exceeded its useful life, requiring major investments to keep it operating safely and efficiently. This challenge is particularly relevant given the ongoing energy affordability issues facing energy-burdened households.”

Edwards, Assistant Professor at the University of Wisconsin and leader of the Climate Action Lab, noted that Massachusetts serves as an informative example due to its history in energy policy and availability of data. “Massachusetts offers a compelling case study,” notes Edwards. “It has a long track record of leadership in energy policy and a wealth of policy-relevant data available to support studies like this. HEET has been an invaluable research partner in this work and a leader in compiling and publishing open data that makes studies like this one possible.”

Magavi, Executive Director of HEET, commented on broader implications: “Our country has a long tradition of successful energy transitions. No one in my town still thinks we should be using whale oil or coal in our homes. That said, whale oil was not a regulated utility so this paper highlights a pretty novel question. What happens when an energy transition drives customers off of existing utility infrastructure? Can we maintain affordability for customers on both sides of this kind of transition?” Magavi added that the framework developed by researchers could help guide future planning.

The authors argue that while prioritizing early electrification for low-income households can reduce immediate burdens on vulnerable groups, it does not eliminate longer-term risks such as rising rates for remaining gas users—a phenomenon known as the utility death spiral. They suggest neighborhood-scale strategies targeting areas with older infrastructure may be needed along with policies addressing links between electricity and gas systems.

The full paper is available online.